It’s hard to root out the difference between the 2012 results and the 2016 results judging by the national exit polls.
National exit polls show Trump winning 58 percent of the white vote, basically identical to Romney’s 59 percent. Whites over 45 years also are about equal — 61 percent for Trump and Romney.
Income measures, nationally are fairly equal. Trump got 41 percent of the under-$50K vote, compared to Romney’s 38 percent.
Among moderates, Trump and Romney ran about equally. Trump and Romney both got 57 percent of protestants. Trump outpaced Romney among Catholics, 51 to 48, according to exit polls.
The biggest difference is this: Trump carried voters with no college degree by 7 points, while Romney lost by 6 points. That net 13-point swing is greater than the swing in college-graduates, from a 2-point Obama win to a 10-point Clinton win—a net of only 8.
